How Our AI Predicts Medals: The Math Behind the 2030 Forecast

You've seen the big number on our homepage. "India Projected to Win X Medals." But how did we arrive at that number?

We didn't just guess. Our AI Medal Predictor uses a weighted algorithm based on three core data points.

1. The "Home Advantage" Coefficient

Historical data shows that host nations see a significant spike in performance.

• Australia (2006 vs 2018): Consistently 20-30% higher when hosting.
• India (2010): Best performance ever (101 medals).
• Our AI applies a +35% weighted boost to Indian athletes' current rankings to account for home crowd support and familiarity with conditions.

2. Sport-Specific Inclusion

The biggest variable is which sports are played.

• If Shooting & Wrestling are included (as expected in Ahmedabad), India's baseline starts +25 Gold medals higher.
• Our tool updates in real-time. If the CGF announces the removal of a sport, our prediction automatically adjusts downward.

3. The "Youth Progression" Curve

We track the age and progression of current stars.

• Example: An athlete who is 20 today and winning Silver is statistically likely to hit their "Gold Peak" at age 25 in 2030. The AI identifies these "Rising Stars" (like Manu Bhaker or Lakshya Sen) and upgrades their probability from Silver to Gold.

Ready to see the number?

We have crunched the numbers for every state and every sport.

👉 Click Here to Run the Prediction for Your State